Where was Trudy on 15 October at 03:00 UTC?
Advisory 7 placed Trudy at 12.4°N, 100.8°W, about 510 km south of Acapulco and 825 km south-southeast of Manzanillo. Sustained winds were 70 mph (110 km/h), and estimated central pressure was 994 mb. It was moving northwest at about 8 mph (13 km/h). These numbers belong to that advisory time; compare the live panel’s timestamp before reusing them.
Trudy forecast path: will it approach Mexico?
The October 15 advisory forecast a turn toward north-northwest and north over the next couple of days, followed by another northwestward turn during the weekend. NHC expected an approach to southwestern and west-central Mexico that weekend. Discussion 7 emphasized uncertainty, particularly on forecast days four and five. This was an approach forecast, not a confirmed landfall or a guarantee that a particular city would be hit.
Could Trudy become a hurricane?
At 03:00 UTC Trudy was still a tropical storm. NHC forecast rapid strengthening and major-hurricane intensity by Friday, 16 October. Discussion 7 described warm water, low wind shear and improving organization as reasons for that forecast, while noting possible weakening later as conditions changed. Keep the analyzed intensity separate from future forecast intensity; a projected category must never be presented as the current classification.
Mexico watches and warnings: the dated status
Advisory 7 listed no coastal watches or warnings at 03:00 UTC on 15 October. It said watches would likely be needed for parts of southwestern or west-central Mexico by early Thursday. That statement anticipated a later decision; it did not issue a watch. Check the newer NHC bulletin and SMN / CONAGUA notice for the actual boundaries, and follow Protección Civil instructions for your municipality.
Colima, Jalisco, Guerrero and Michoacán rainfall
Through the weekend, advisory 7 forecast 4–8 inches of rain, with isolated totals around 12 inches, across Colima and Jalisco. For the southwest coast between Guerrero and Michoacán, its forecast was 2–4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches. NHC identified flooding and mudslide risks, especially on steep terrain. These are forecast ranges for the stated period, not rainfall already measured or a total assigned to every town.
Surf and rip currents can arrive before the center
The same advisory expected swells to begin affecting southwestern Mexico late in the week and continue through the weekend, creating dangerous surf and rip currents. Distance from the forecast center alone is not a beach-safety measure. Consult local weather, port and civil-protection notices; the center line and cone do not mark the full area of rain, coastal water or wave hazards.
Trudy timeline: depression, named storm and later updates
NHC began EP212026 as Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E at 15:00 UTC on 13 October. Advisory 2 named it Trudy at 21:00 UTC that day with sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). Advisory 7 reached 70 mph (110 km/h) at 03:00 UTC on 15 October. All three milestones refer to the same 2026 system. Match the year and identifier when opening older Trudy stories or a shared social-media clip.
How to follow Trudy alongside Simon
Simon is the separate system EP202026. Discussion 7 noted that a possible interaction with Simon could complicate Trudy’s steering, adding uncertainty; it did not confirm a merger. Compare their individual pages instead of combining their positions or warnings. Use the Mexico hub and advisory-reading guide below, save Trudy with Follow, and share the page with its year and source time. Following saves a browser shortcut and does not send emergency notifications.
Official references
- 15 October, 03:00 UTC: Trudy advisory 7 ↗
- 15 October, 03:00 UTC: forecast reasoning and uncertainty ↗
- 13 October, 15:00 UTC: Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E forms ↗
- 13 October, 21:00 UTC: Trudy named in advisory 2 ↗
- Current NHC public advisory (confirm EP212026 in the bulletin) ↗
- SMN / CONAGUA Pacific cyclone notice ↗