Check the latest available NHC outlook for developing disturbances and their formation chances. The source text remains in its original language, and every update carries its publication time.
What is being watched south of Mexico?
The NHC outlook issued at 05:00 PDT on 12 October 2026 identified EP93 south of southern Mexico and also referred readers to advisories for Simon. That is a dated observation. Use the automatically checked outlook above to see which disturbances remain listed and how the assessment has changed. An active cyclone and a developing disturbance can appear in the same basin.
48-hour versus 7-day formation probability
The two percentages refer to development into a tropical cyclone within different time windows. Seven days includes the first 48 hours, so adding the percentages would count overlapping periods. Compare the same disturbance and the same forecast window across successive issue times. A higher percentage does not specify the eventual wind category.
Does EP93 mean a named tropical storm?
A disturbance identifier is a reference for the area being monitored. It does not establish that the disturbance has become a named storm. Follow the official text for development and any subsequent advisory identifier. This page keeps the regional outlook URL so its information remains useful when one disturbance develops or disappears from the list.
Formation probability and Mexico landfall questions
Formation probability describes whether a tropical cyclone develops during the stated period. A question about landfall in a particular Mexican state requires track guidance and relevant national or local notices. Open the NHC graphic for the development area and the SMN Pacific cyclone notice for Mexico. Read the named places and validity period before applying a basin-wide percentage to a town.
How to compare the outlook with Simon advisories
Use the Simon page for that existing cyclone’s position, classification and advisory. Use this outlook for areas under development. Keep each product’s issue time visible when comparing them; a newer outlook does not automatically revise every value in an older cyclone advisory. The news page provides additional dated official bulletin links.
Updates, archives and sharing the source time
This page checks its source every five minutes while open. The publication time belongs to NHC; the check time belongs to this website. Missing or old data is identified and current figures are cleared. For changes over several days, consult the official outlook archive. Share this page with the disturbance ID and the source time so readers can check the current assessment.
Official references
Reviewed 2026-10-12. Independent guide; follow NHC and local authorities for safety decisions.