Why model tracks can spread
What are spaghetti models?
“Spaghetti models” is an informal name for a plot of multiple forecast tracks, not a single forecasting model. Each line may represent a different model, an ensemble member, or a consensus product. Read the legend before treating the lines as comparable evidence. This guide’s illustration is a fictional teaching diagram; this page does not supply live model tracks.
Single runs, ensembles and consensus
A deterministic run produces one solution for a set of starting conditions. An ensemble runs multiple solutions with altered inputs or configurations to explore uncertainty. Consensus guidance combines selected model forecasts. A chart can mix these products, so twenty lines are not necessarily twenty independent forecasts with equal weight.
Check the model cycle and forecast hour
A model cycle identifies the run’s starting time; the forecast hour identifies how far into the future a plotted point lies. Publication and processing take time. Two lines displayed together may come from different cycles or use adjusted guidance from an earlier run. Compare both times before interpreting a shift between screenshots. UTC and local times must also be aligned.
What does a wide spread mean?
Diverging lines show that the displayed guidance has different track solutions. Closely grouped lines indicate agreement among those plotted solutions, but they can share errors. Spread is not a calibrated probability map, and a single outlying line is not proof of a future landfall. Inspect the time horizon and read the official forecast discussion for context.
Spaghetti models vs the NHC forecast cone
The NHC track is an official forecast informed by observations, guidance and forecaster judgment. Its operational cone uses historical track forecast errors; it is not the boundary around the lines in a spaghetti plot. Neither product maps all wind, rain or storm-surge impacts. For a location, read the hazard products and current watches or warnings as well.
Why a model line can change between runs
New observations and a changing environment can alter the starting analysis and the resulting forecast. Longer lead times add opportunities for differences to grow. Keep the original run time when sharing a plot; an old image can circulate after guidance has changed. Compare the same forecast horizon and system identifier rather than relying on a visually dramatic line.
A practical reading order
Identify the cyclone and year, read the legend, match cycle and forecast hours, then compare with the latest NHC advisory and discussion. Finally check the relevant local warnings. If a chart omits its model labels or timestamps, open its source before drawing a conclusion. The links below provide the official model reference and a current-product directory.
Frequently asked questions
Which hurricane model is the most accurate?
Performance depends on the storm, forecast horizon, variable and verification period. One impressive run is not enough to rank models for every situation. Read official guidance and forecasts together.
Are spaghetti models the official hurricane track?
No. They are model guidance. NHC issues its official track and forecast discussion separately.
Do more lines over a city mean a higher landfall probability?
Not by counting alone. Lines may share models or inputs and are not necessarily independent, equally weighted probabilities.
Do spaghetti plots show storm size or rain?
A track plot concerns the center. Use separate wind, rainfall and coastal hazard products for impacts.
Where can I find current NHC forecasts?
Open the official NHC current-cyclones directory linked below; check the advisory and forecast discussion for the named system.
Reviewed 2026-10-05. Independent guide; follow NHC and local authorities for safety decisions.